Where Will the Vote Storm Make Landfall?
Four Scenarios to Watch for In November
Hurricane trackers love “spaghetti” models. Hurricanes can be fickle and unpredictable. It’s nearly impossible to tell where they will track or make landfall. So, the trackers identify all potential routes with curvy lines – the “spaghetti.”
The model works for the presidential campaign. There is more at stake than a binary Harris versus Trump choice. Where will the vote storm eventually make landfall? As we approach election day, there are four spaghetti strands.
Strand 1: A Trump Landslide
Less than a month ago Tony Fabrizio, one of Donald Trump’s pollsters, bragged about his candidate’s all-but-guaranteed victory. “This is going to sound extraordinarily cocky, and I don’t mean it to sound that way, or overconfident,” he told reporters covering an event in Chicago, “but literally we stopped counting at 25 different paths to 270.”
That was during the giddy Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. Confidence went through the roof. Attendees were casually tossing around the word, “landslide.”
The term “landslide” includes winning the House and Senate as well. Given that trifecta, expect a legislative agenda that tracks Project 2025, with much of it signed into law.
Strand 2: A Narrow Trump Victory
Trump would have at least one legislative branch controlled by Democrats. That would likely prevent most, if not all, of Project 2025 from becoming law. Legislation would be trench warfare, with Democrats digging in against the most extreme elements of the Republican wish list. Domestic politics would be largely static.
The biggest change with a narrow Trump victory would be overseas, not domestic. Trump would redesign foreign policy. He would abandon Ukraine to his BFF Putin, insult our traditional allies, and withdraw from NATO. The United States would abandon the Paris Climate Accords. His foreign policy would leave the U.S. tethered to unstable autocrats in a regressive and more dangerous world.
Strand 3: A Narrow Harris Victory
A narrow win by Kamala Harris would also mean paralysis on the domestic front. She would also have to deal with a split congress. Expect a Democratic majority in the House offset by Republican control of the Senate. Progressive legislation would die in the Senate. Judicial appointments would be a grind and many court openings would never get filled.
Harris would preserve traditional alliances. She would embrace, not insult, our allies. We could trust her to act like a mature, professional adult, unlike the surly adolescence Trump visited on international gatherings. Unfortunately, she would have difficulty maintaining military aid to Ukraine. The war would likely be settled on terms more favorable to Russia.
Strand 4: A Harris Landslide
The last option: a Harris victory and Democratic control of congress. Depending on whether the Democrat Senate retains the filibuster in its current format, a substantial amount of progressive legislation would be signed into law. A Harris administration with Democrats in both houses of congress would allow the President to change the makeup of the Supreme Court.
Harris would support Ukraine’s war of self-defense against Russia and reinforce America’s most valuable alliances. Her Middle East policy would be less deferential to Benjamin Netanyahu and more supportive of the Palestinian people. She would continue to strengthen alliances in the western Pacific.
Which One Will It Be?
Where will the vote storm make landfall? Is it evidence of insanity to believe one can predict the outcome of an election during one of the most volatile, surprising, and unpredictable political seasons in American history?
Yes, but sanity has been devalued.
Strand 1, a Trump landslide, seems the least likely outcome. He lost the popular vote in his previous campaigns. He enjoys a passionate core of supporters – cultists, actually – but seems uninterested in attracting others. Given how evenly split the country is right now, a low turnout would probably nudge Trump over 270 electoral votes and give Republicans the Senate.
That would push us into Strand 2, a more likely outcome than the unreachable landslide Trump and his followers anticipated. This would require a suppressed vote, since heavy turnout historically favors Democrats. Right now, a record high turnout is more likely than a low one, given the intensity and enthusiasm that are building, especially on the Democratic side.
Strand 3 will predict the outcome if the actual vote in November mirrors what the polls tell us in August. Harris has been trending upward and is leading in enough states to support an electoral victory. The leads are narrow. A recent poll in Montana suggests President Harris would be saddled with a Republican senate.
Nothing is guaranteed in politics. No one controls unexpected events nor is anyone immune from them. An earth-wobbling event could impact the American presidential race. There is no lack of potential impactors. Russia’s, Iran’s, and Israel’s leaders are quite capable of reckless action that has planetary consequences.
As for Strand 4: the prospect of a Harris landslide is not as remote as one for Trump. Landslides in the 21st century are tamer than those of the previous century. No recent landslide has approached Nixon or Reagan levels. Obama 2008 is the new landslide.
Could Harris achieve Obama level support? Two things would have to happen. First, Harris must build on and continue her impressive campaign rollout. Her message has been pitch-perfect and delivered with strength and grace. Stir in some popular policy proposals and she looks like a winner.
The other thing: Let Trump be Trump. His speeches are word marbles rolling around a table top. Hannibal Lecter? Sharks? Recalling a conversation with Vladmir Putin that sounds like a Wayne’s World skit?
A Harris landslide?
“No way.”
“Way!”
© 2024 by Mike Tully